U.S. GDP expected to hold up in Q1 but then fade in 2H-2019 U.S. consumer sentiment remains generally strong despite mild set-back in April Japan refuses to link a currency agreement to a trade agreement Markets are hoping for a US/Chinese trade agreement in two weeks
U.S. GDP expected to hold up in Q1 but then fade in 2H-2019 -- The consensus is for today's Q1 GDP report to improve slightly to +2.3% (q/q annualized) from +2.2% in Q4. Expectations for today's Q1 GDP report have improved substantially just in the past several weeks from earlier expectations of about +1.5% due to the recent release of stronger economic data. In particular, March retail sales surged by +1.6% m/m. Even with that late surge in retail sales, however, the consensus is for today's Q1 personal consumption to show an increase of only +1.0% q/q annualized, which would be the weakness performance in a year.
Q1 GDP is expected to be boosted by rising inventories and by a solid net export figure. However, there will be negative payback in the next two quarters because inventory growth has outstripped demand since mid-2018 and inventories will have to be cut in coming months, which will hurt GDP growth in Q2 and Q3.
The Atlanta Fed's GDPNow forecast for Q1 GDP growth of +2.7% is substantially stronger than the consensus of +2.3%. GDPNow is forecasting the following sector contributions to GDP: +0.77 percentage points from personal consumption, +0.12 points from equipment spending, +0.31 points from intellectual property products, , -0.01 point from nonresidential structures, +0.05 from residential investment, +0.54 from government spending, +0.50 points from net exports, and +0.39 points from the change in private inventories.
Looking ahead, the consensus is for U.S. GDP growth to...To continue, Visit http://ccstrade.com/blog
Call for Applications: IoT.ATL AgTech Challenge - Innovative AgTech solutions
The AgTech Challenge seeks to support and accelerate best-in-class urban agricultural technologies that successfully position food as a platform for health, economic development and cultural expression, creating co-benefits for all – particularly low-income residents and families. Winning applicants for this opportunity will define what agricultural products it intends to grow and what technology they will use, what other companies it will collaborate with, and incorporate one or more of the following considerations; community engagement and education, equity and inclusion, economic development, and innovative agricultural and IoT technologies.
Dateline for submission: November 2, 2018
Illustration Photo: Aquaponic basil at a net-zero vertical farm (credits: Chris Bentley / Flickr Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivs 2.0 Generic (CC BY-NC-ND 2.0))
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Late Sunday afternoon promised some disruption of the usual NFL fare as a media alert from the U.S. Trade Representative's Office touted a press conference to close out the Trans-Pacific Partnership ministerial meeting in Atlanta. (cont...) http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/ag/blogs/template1&blogHandle=policy&blogEntryId=8a82c0bc4fdd683e015035ab2a440308